2026 Nobel Prize in Literature: Can Xue Leads the Betting, but the Odds Do Not Predict the Winner

A few days before the announcement of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, bookmakers and prediction markets have Can Xue among the favorites. Haruki Murakami, Gerald Murnane, and Thomas Pynchon also appear near the top of several betting lists, although rankings and odds vary by platform and by the date of consultation.

The Swedish Academy is scheduled to announce the new laureate on Thursday, October 8. Its deliberations and nominations remain confidential: public betting lists do not show who has officially been considered and offer no inside information about the decision.

Can Xue leads several lists, with differences between markets

Chinese writer Can Xue tops some Ladbrokes betting lists with odds of 10 to 1. At the same bookmaker, Haruki Murakami is listed at 14 to 1, while Gerald Murnane and Thomas Pynchon are listed at 16 to 1 in rankings published by some coverage. These odds can change and are not equivalent to an objective probability of winning: they express the terms offered by a platform at a particular time.

Prediction markets offer a different snapshot. In a Kalshi ranking from October 5, Anne Carson was at 19%, ahead of Can Xue at 15% and Amitav Ghosh at 13%. The difference from the betting lists underscores that there is no single forecast: each service reflects its users’ expectations and transactions according to its own criteria.

Writers from different countries and traditions

In addition to the names mentioned most often, the lists include Margaret Atwood, Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Lídia Jorge, Ludmila Ulitskaya, Michel Houellebecq, Mircea Cărtărescu, and César Aira, among others. Rivera Garza and Vila-Matas stand out among Spanish-language writers, although their positions vary between platforms and rankings. At Ladbrokes, for example, they are given odds of 20 to 1 in one report, while other lists place Rivera Garza higher.

The range of names brings together very different careers and styles: from the experimental fiction of Can Xue and Pynchon to Carson’s poetry and essays. A writer’s appearance on a betting list indicates that bettors or users regard them as a possible winner; it does not confirm a formal nomination or recognition by the Academy.

Betting odds do not guarantee the result

Betting lists have sometimes overlooked writers who later won the prize. The reports consulted differ on László Krasznahorkai’s position; he was the 2025 laureate. One says he was not among the leading predictions, while another places him second on Ladbrokes’ list. That discrepancy is a reminder that lists vary by source and that their rankings are not a reliable prediction of the decision.

Betting odds therefore provide a way to see which names are attracting attention before the announcement, not to predict who will win. The choice remains in the hands of the Swedish Academy, and its verdict will only be known when it makes it public.