Mexico’s economic activity grew 0.6% in August, its strongest annual increase since 2023

Mexico’s Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) increased 0.6% month over month in August 2026, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). It was the second consecutive monthly increase, after activity stagnated in June and grew 0.8% in July. Year over year, the indicator rose 3.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.3% in unadjusted figures. The seasonally adjusted increase was the largest since October 2023, according to data released by the agency.

The IGAE provides a monthly reference for the evolution of the economy and helps track its trend before quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) figures are published. It is not equivalent to annual GDP growth: it describes economic activity in a given month and its comparisons.

Construction and wholesale trade led the annual increase

The main supports for year-over-year growth were secondary activities, which include industry, and tertiary activities, which comprise services. In unadjusted figures, the former increased 3.5% and the latter 3.6%; primary activities, which are linked to agriculture and livestock, declined 2.6%.

Within industry, construction grew 7.5% year over year and manufacturing 3.2%, while mining fell 0.8%. In services, wholesale trade grew 12.1% and retail trade 2.4%. Financial and insurance services, as well as health care and social assistance, also increased. By contrast, temporary accommodation and food and beverage services contracted, as did business support services.

Monthly figures show another side of the result: the primary sector grew 3.5% compared with July, secondary activities advanced 0.6%, and services rose 0.2%. The increase in services was smaller than the 1.2% recorded in July, a sign that the recovery did not extend with equal strength across all components of domestic demand.

Analysts see fewer immediate risks, but an uneven recovery

Joan Domene, chief economist for Latin America at Oxford Economics, said the data point to a recovery in activity despite a slowdown from July. Andrés Abadía of Pantheon Macroeconomics said the strength of household spending and firmer industrial activity reduce the urgency of additional monetary stimulus. At the same time, he warned that persistent services inflation limits the scope for monetary policy easing.

In this context, some analysts believe the result supports the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) leaving its interest rate unchanged. This is a market expectation, not a decision announced by the central bank; the IGAE figure alone does not determine the course of monetary policy.

Analysts at Banamex attributed the improvement over their forecasts to stronger activity, with positive signs in manufacturing and construction, as well as exports and investment. The institution raised its GDP growth estimate for 2026 to 2%, from 1.4%, and set its forecast for 2027 at 1.8%, up from 1.7%. These are forecasts subject to change, not observed results.

August’s data improve the short-term picture but do not erase differences between sectors: construction and wholesale trade stood out in the year-over-year comparison, while some primary activities and services recorded declines. This mix, together with the monthly slowdown in services, will be important in assessing whether the momentum continues in upcoming indicators.