Nvidia nears $6 trillion as AI and buybacks drive it to a new all-time high

Nvidia has reached a new all-time high in its share price, putting its market capitalization at around $5.76 trillion. This milestone puts the company on the brink of the psychological $6 trillion threshold, which analysts and prediction markets say it could cross before the end of 2026. The move represents a gain of approximately 28% so far this year, adding $1.2 trillion to its market value and making it the biggest contributor to the S&P 500’s advance.

Record results and confidence in AI infrastructure

The stock’s momentum is underpinned by quarterly results that exceeded Wall Street expectations. In its fiscal second quarter, the company reported revenue of $96.2 billion and forecast third-quarter sales of between $105.8 billion and $110.1 billion. This financial strength reflects insatiable demand for the graphics processing units (GPUs) and networking systems Nvidia designs to power artificial intelligence data centers.

The largest buyback in history as a catalyst

A key factor in the rally has been the company’s decision to authorize an additional $150 billion under its existing share buyback program, raising the total to $235 billion. This is the largest buyback in the history of technology companies. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the move as a sign of “confidence in the long-term opportunity” and called the company “the first and only growth and value stock in the world.”

Analysts see the strategy as a way to share the wealth generated by the company’s extraordinarily high profit margins. Jordan Klein, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, said buybacks are “what investors want to see” because they reduce the number of shares outstanding and boost earnings per share. Unlike other major technology companies that direct their cash toward AI investment, Nvidia combines organic growth with this return of capital, strengthening its appeal to investors.

Market expectations and valuation

Prediction markets and equity options assign a significant probability to Nvidia crossing the $6 trillion threshold. According to Polymarket data, there is a combined 41% probability that Nvidia will end 2026 with a market capitalization above that figure. Stock options suggest a 50% probability of reaching $6 trillion before the end of October and a 67% probability by December 18.

In valuation terms, the stock currently trades at around 17 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, a multiple close to its lowest level in a decade and below the S&P 500 average of 19 times. Jim Awad, senior managing director at Clearstead Advisors, described Nvidia as “a safe haven against any damage higher rates may do to the economy,” highlighting its appeal for both growth and valuation.

Risks and competition

Despite the optimism, questions remain about the sustainability of growth. Investors are closely monitoring competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and custom chips developed by cloud giants such as Amazon and Google. Concerns have also been raised about “circular investing,” in which Nvidia funds customers that then use those funds to buy more of its chips. Nevertheless, current demand appears “insensitive to rising interest rates,” reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the company’s business.