Hernández de Cos leads the race to succeed Lagarde at the ECB

The succession to the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has entered a decisive phase. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg among a panel of economists, Pablo Hernández de Cos, former governor of the Bank of Spain and current director of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), is emerging as the favorite candidate to replace Christine Lagarde.

Support from economists and governments

The poll results show a moderate but clear advantage for the Spaniard: 12 economists support him, compared to the 9 who back his main rival, the Dutch Klaas Knot, who led the central bank of the Netherlands between 2011 and 2025.

This technical support is added to the explicit political backing from their respective governments:

• Spain: President Pedro Sánchez publicly defended Hernández de Cos's candidacy in September, describing him as an "exceptional" president of the Bank of Spain and highlighting his leadership and knowledge for Europe.
• Netherlands: Prime Minister Rob Jetten supported Knot at the end of September, emphasizing his "pragmatism" and ability to work with all partners during one of the most difficult moments in monetary policy.

A political, not technical, process

Although the economists' survey offers a signal of technical consensus, the final appointment does not depend on this group. The choice belongs to the European Union member states, which must reach a political agreement. The negotiations are marked by the need to close a "package" of appointments before the current mandate expires.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pointed out the urgency of the process: "If necessary, we will find a very quick solution in the Council," referring both to the replacement of Vice President Isabel Schnabel and to the possible early departure of the president.

The time factor: Lagarde's possible early departure

The process calendar has been accelerated due to statements by Christine Lagarde herself, who has indicated that she might leave the position "a few months" before the official expiration date of her mandate, set for October 31, 2027.

• Surveyed expectations: Only a third of the economists consulted believe that Lagarde will complete her term. More than two-thirds anticipate her departure in April 2027, and a quarter do not rule out a resignation in January 2027.
• Political motivation: It is speculated that an early departure would allow the current governments of France and Germany, before the elections scheduled for next year, to play a decisive role in the choice of the new president.

The nationality "sudoku" in the Executive Board

The negotiation is not limited to the presidency. EU leaders are seeking to close a package that includes at least three key positions in the Executive Board:

1. Presidency: Hernández de Cos or Klaas Knot.
2. Vice Presidency: Vacant after Isabel Schnabel announced her move to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2027.
3. Chief Economist: Philip Lane's mandate ends in May 2027, although an early departure is also being speculated.

If Klaas Knot were elected president, the negotiation could extend to a fourth position, as Frank Elderson, his Dutch compatriot, currently holds a seat on the board. There is an unwritten rule that avoids the duplication of nationalities among the six members of the Executive Board.

Scenarios and next steps

The dispute will likely be resolved sooner than initially expected. EU heads of government will hold an informal meeting on November 13, prior to the European Council on November 26 and 27, where progress is expected in defining the candidates.