The REM Cuts Its Growth Forecast for 2026 and Estimates Inflation at 1.9% in September

The Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) raised its estimate of monthly inflation for September to 1.9% and cut its economic growth forecast for 2026. The report also anticipated a decline in activity in the third quarter, followed by a recovery in the fourth.

The survey was published on October 6 and compiled responses collected between September 28 and 30. 44 participants took part: 33 local and international consulting firms and research centers, and 11 Argentine financial institutions. The BCRA clarifies that the results reflect participants’ forecasts and do not constitute the institution’s own projections.

Inflation: 1.9% in September; gradual slowdown toward year-end

The median estimate put headline inflation in September at 1.9%, one-tenth of a percentage point higher than in the previous REM. The group of ten participants with the strongest historical track record in their forecasts—the so-called Top 10—estimated the same increase.

For core CPI, which excludes seasonal components and regulated prices, participants as a whole estimated a 1.8% increase in September. The Top 10 put it at 1.7%, unchanged from the previous survey.

In forecasts for the following months, monthly inflation would stand at 1.7% in October, 1.6% in November, and 1.8% in December. For all of 2026, analysts projected year-over-year inflation of 30% by December. These are expectations gathered by the survey, not official inflation data that have already been published.

Lower annual growth and an expected decline in the third quarter

Regarding economic activity, participants estimated that seasonally adjusted GDP would have contracted 1% in the third quarter of 2026. The forecast was revised downward by 2.1 percentage points compared with the previous REM.

For the fourth quarter, by contrast, the survey projected quarterly growth of 1.8%, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage points. For the first quarter of 2027, it anticipated growth of 0.7%.

The projection for real GDP in 2026, compared with the 2025 average, stood at 1.5%, six-tenths of a percentage point below the previous survey. The Top 10 estimated annual growth of 1.2%, after cutting its forecast by one percentage point.

These figures are estimates, not final results. In particular, an expected quarterly decline is not, by itself, enough to assert that there was a technical recession: that characterization depends on observed data and the course of consecutive quarters.

The survey also forecasts unemployment and the exchange rate

The REM estimated an open unemployment rate of 7.5% of the economically active population for the third quarter and 7.7% for the fourth. Both forecasts increased by two-tenths of a percentage point compared with the previous report.

For the nominal exchange rate, the median response put the October average at ARS 1,545 per dollar, ARS 20 less than in the previous REM. For December, it projected ARS 1,614, equivalent to an expected year-over-year change of 11.5% compared with December 2025. The Top 10 estimated ARS 1,602 for that month.

The survey includes expectations about prices, activity, the exchange rate, interest rates, unemployment, and other variables. Its results make it possible to track how forecasts change among the analysts and institutions surveyed; they do not necessarily anticipate what will ultimately happen in the Argentine economy.