Shell forecasts refining margins of $42 per barrel in the third quarter

Forecast nearly doubles the previous quarter’s margin

Shell forecasts a refining margin of $42 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026, compared with $24 per barrel in the second quarter. The company gave the estimate in a trading update ahead of the publication of its full results, scheduled for late October.

The figure is a forecast, not a confirmed quarterly result. The refining margin reflects the difference between the value of the products obtained—such as gasoline and diesel—and the cost of crude oil, but on its own it is not equivalent to a refinery’s net profit or Shell’s overall profit.

Limited fuel supply puts pressure on margins

Coverage links the increase to the reduced availability of refined fuels. Factors cited include disruptions and damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia, which have reduced available capacity as the market seeks to secure products such as diesel.

This dynamic matters because the price of refined fuel can rise relative to crude oil when processing capacity is scarce. In this context, refineries that remain operational may earn higher margins. However, the trading update alone does not make it possible to conclude how much this improvement will contribute to Shell’s consolidated results.

The figure does not confirm profits or future prices

The forecast margin offers a signal about refining business conditions during July–September, but it does not automatically determine final profits: these also depend on other operational and financial factors. Nor is it enough to predict how prices will change in each market or when supply will return to normal.

Shell is due to publish its full results in late October. That publication would allow the forecast to be compared with the quarter’s figures and provide a clearer picture of the performance of its different businesses.