Equinor warns rejection of Rosebank and Jackdaw could cool investment in the UK

The future of two hydrocarbon projects in the British North Sea has become a test for the United Kingdom’s energy policy and for investor confidence in the sector. Anders Opedal, Equinor’s chief executive, warned that rejecting Rosebank and Jackdaw could lead the company and other investors to reconsider the country’s appeal as a place to develop new projects.

Opedal made the warning at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. According to his remarks, not approving Rosebank would be a setback for energy security and job creation. In another interview, he said that Equinor would have to review its outlook for future investments if the Government blocked the projects. These are warnings about possible business decisions, not an announcement of a withdrawal or an official decision on the permits.

Two projects subject to new regulatory decisions

Rosebank and Jackdaw received their original authorizations under the previous Conservative Government: Jackdaw in 2022 and Rosebank in 2023. Those approvals were challenged by Greenpeace and Uplift. In January 2025, a court concluded that the authorizations were unlawful because they had not fully considered the climate effects of emissions associated with the use of the hydrocarbons. The result was the quashing of the permits and the need to process new applications.

The projects therefore do not currently have definitive approval resulting from that process. The decision rests with the British authorities, which must assess the relevant information and environmental considerations. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said that any decision would take into account the evidence and submissions received during the procedure.

Different timelines and exposure for Adura

Jackdaw is a gas field located off the coast of Aberdeen. Its developers say that much of the necessary infrastructure is already in place and that it could begin producing within weeks if it receives authorization. Rosebank, a predominantly oil project, could begin production during the first half of 2027, according to the available information. Both timelines depend on obtaining the relevant permits and should not be interpreted as confirmed start-up dates.

Both assets are linked to Adura, Equinor and Shell’s joint venture in the British North Sea, which adopted that name in 2025. The company is expected to become the largest oil and gas producer in that area. A rejection would therefore affect the prospects for these developments and could influence how its partners assess new opportunities in the country; the sources do not specify which future projects might be reconsidered or on what timeline.

Energy security and climate goals in tension

The debate pits different arguments against one another. Supporters of the projects argue that domestic production can contribute to energy security and employment. Critics question the climate impact of hydrocarbons, including the emissions generated when they are consumed. The judicial review focused on how those emissions were treated when the projects were authorized, and the new decisions must comply with the current regulatory process.

Equinor’s warning highlights that regulatory certainty is a consideration for companies when assessing long-term investments. However, it does not in itself show that a potential refusal would lead to an outflow of capital, nor does it allow the effects on the British economy to be quantified. While approvals remain pending, the decision on each field will be crucial to its development, but must also be considered within the applicable environmental limits and requirements in the United Kingdom.