Which CEDEARs analysts are watching after Brazil's first round and ahead of the runoff

Following the first round of the Brazilian election, where Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the opposition candidate, obtained 47.03% of the votes against 45.16% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a potential victory for the candidate in the October 25 runoff could further improve market sentiment toward Brazilian assets. Investors are expecting a more restrictive fiscal policy, less state intervention, and reforms favorable to private capital. Under that hypothesis, analyses from PPI and advisors consulted by El Cronista and iProfesional highlight banks and fintechs, as well as some state-owned companies and the EWZ ETF, available for trading in Argentina via CEDEAR.

These are scenarios outlined by analysts, not guaranteed outcomes. The reaction of assets will depend on both the runoff result and the measures that a potential government could actually implement, as well as economic conditions that go beyond local politics.

Why the scenario could favor Brazilian assets

The market thesis links Bolsonaro's potential victory in the runoff to expectations of fiscal discipline, reorganization of state-owned companies, and privatizations. If these expectations are confirmed and reduce the perception of fiscal risk, they could improve the valuations of Brazilian stocks and support the real. The possibility that lower credit costs could benefit financial institutions and companies sensitive to economic activity is also mentioned.

However, expectations had already influenced prices. In its coverage on October 5, 2026, following the first round, Forbes Argentina reported that the Bovespa advanced more than 8% and that the EWZ rose more than 12% during the session. These are movements described for that date, not current quotes. The media outlet related that reaction to the surprise of the result and expectations about the runoff. Therefore, part of a potential favorable outcome may already be incorporated into the quotes. An electoral victory, by itself, does not determine how much additional upside the stocks would have.

Banks and fintechs among the highlighted names

Among the financial CEDEARs mentioned are Nubank (NU), Bradesco (BBD), Itaú Unibanco (ITUB), and Banco do Brasil (BBAS). The logic explained by analysts is that an environment of lower rates and higher credit activity could favor banks and financial services companies. Nubank and other fintechs could also benefit, under that hypothesis, from increased credit usage and expansion of the capital markets.

Sensitivity is not the same for all companies. Banco do Brasil, due to its state-owned nature, could react more intensely to expectations regarding the role of the State. At the same time, the performance of each institution will depend on its results, financing costs, and the evolution of credit; a political orientation perceived as favorable to the market does not eliminate those business risks.

Petrobras and EWZ: broad exposure, but with other drivers

Petrobras (PBR) also figures among the assets that could receive support if the market anticipates less state intervention and a more predictable capital policy. However, its performance is exposed to factors specific to the oil sector, such as international energy prices and the company's decisions. Therefore, the electoral expectation is not enough to explain its movements.

The EWZ, which tracks a basket of Brazilian stocks, offers more diversified exposure to the country's market than a single company, although it retains concentrated risk in Brazil and in the sectors with the greatest weight in the index. Its evolution can combine the effect of local politics with that of the currency, commodities, and global financial conditions.

If Lula wins, analysts describe a different selection

The coverage also contemplates a victory for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the runoff. In that case, some analysts describe a potentially more defensive scenario and mention exporters such as WEG, Embraer, Suzano, Gerdau, and Vale. The explanation is that companies with revenues linked to the outside world could have relative protection if the real weakened.

That possibility also does not imply automatic coverage. In the case of Vale, for example, sources highlight the influence of the global iron cycle and Chinese demand, factors that may weigh more heavily than Brazilian politics. In other exporters, international prices, costs, and demand in their markets also play a role.

What variables can change the outcome for an investor

In addition to the runoff result, analyses point to several factors that can alter the market's response:

• The fiscal situation and rates: expectations of lower deficits or cheaper credit would have to translate into concrete decisions and economic conditions.
• The exchange rate: an appreciation or depreciation of the real can affect both companies with local revenues and exporters. For those trading CEDEARs in Argentina, the local quote of the instrument and the implied exchange rate also matter.
• Prices already discounted: if the market anticipated part of the result, the subsequent reaction may be more moderate or even different from what was expected.
• The capacity to implement reforms: a candidate's program is not equivalent to an approved policy. Legislative support and political negotiations can condition its execution.
• International factors: global rates, commodity demand, and geopolitical tensions can also impact Brazilian stocks and the EWZ.

In summary, CEDEARs of banks and fintechs appear among the potential beneficiaries of a reading favorable to Bolsonaro, while Petrobras and the EWZ offer different exposures to the Brazilian market. These are analyst hypotheses, not personalized recommendations or guarantees of return. CEDEARs are traded in Argentina, but they represent foreign assets and can vary due to the price of the underlying asset, the exchange rate, and local market conditions.