One-year inflation expectations rise to 3.1% in the euro area

Short-term expected inflation rebounds for the second month

Consumers in the euro area expect prices to rise by 3.1% over the next 12 months, a tenth of a percentage point higher than in August. This is the second consecutive monthly increase, according to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s consumer expectations survey, conducted between August 27 and September 28, 2026.

The change is moderate and refers to what respondents expect, not to an official inflation forecast or the increase their spending will necessarily experience. One-year expectations had declined between April and July, according to data published on the survey.

Longer-term forecasts remain unchanged

For the next three years, consumers place expected inflation at 2.9%; for the next five years, at 2.5%. Both figures remained unchanged compared to the previous survey.

The ECB also reported that uncertainty regarding 12-month inflation increased slightly and remained above the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The institution did not attribute a specific change in expectations to a single cause in the results.

Nominal income and spending also show increases

The survey records an improvement in expectations for nominal income growth: consumers expect an increase of 1.1% in the coming year, compared to 1% in the previous survey. Perceived nominal spending over the previous 12 months rose to 5.3%, from 5.2%, and expected nominal spending growth over one year went from 3.6% to 3.7%.

These responses describe households' perceptions and expectations. By themselves, they do not indicate how actual income, consumption, or inflation will evolve, nor do they determine the ECB's future monetary policy decisions.